Unwavering belief
It’s been a while since Rafael Nadal has been one of the last four men standing at Wimbledon – seven years to be exact.
During that period, the Spaniard went through spells where his knee woes hindered his performances on the surface, the low-bouncing balls proving too tough on his troublesome joints. At other times he was blown off the court by power hitters who tend to peak on grass.
And with every early exit for Nadal at Wimbledon, people started to doubt if he’d ever excel on the turf again. Some even wondered if he would be better off skipping the grass season altogether, in the same way Roger Federer opted out of the clay swing in 2017 and 2018.
But Nadal and his camp never stopped believing; his uncle and former coach, Toni Nadal, insisted after the 32-year-old’s latest Roland-Garros success that his nephew can win Wimbledon this year. Now he is two victories away from doing just that.
Standing in his way is Novak Djokovic, a three-time Wimbledon champion fighting his way back to his peak following an elbow injury that required surgery in February and kept him out of the sport for the second half of 2017.
Nadal against Djokovic is the most contested men’s rivalry in the Open Era and Djokovic currently edges the head-to-head 26-25.
As they square off in a major for the first time in three years, here are a few reasons why Nadal can emerge as the victor of this highly-anticipated semi-final.
Winning streak
Nadal enters the contest on a 17-match winning streak – a stretch that included title runs in Rome and at Roland-Garros. The Spaniard has only lost two matches this year, and his 35 victories place him second on the leaderboard for most clashes won. Momentum is on his side and his confidence must be sky-high.
Solid on serve
Although serve is not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing Nadal, it’s worth noting that he has been broken only six times in his five matches this Fortnight. He has won 93 per cent of his service games - the second highest among the four semi-finalists (John Isner leads, having not been broken yet).
As Andy Murray pointed out while commentating on Nadal’s quarter-final against Juan Martin del Potro, the Spaniard’s second serve is underrated and not many people realise that he is number one in history for points won on second serve.
That statistic is true at Wimbledon this year, where Nadal leads the semi-finalists with a 67 per cent winning rate on his second serve. No player who has made it past the second round has a higher winning percentage behind that shot. On a surface like grass, being this efficient on serve greatly boosts your chances.
Aggression
Nadal has always said that when he’s hitting the ball cleanly, he is able to construct points properly to set up winners, and it makes him more confident in venturing to the net to finish off points. Through his five rounds, he has contested 126 net points and won 102 of them, with his 81 per cent success rate the best of the semi-finalists. He has hit 184 winners against 101 unforced errors, averaging 36.8 winners per match.
History
Nadal has never lost any of the five semi-finals he has played at Wimbledon. In fact, every time he has made the last eight, he went on to reach the final. The world No.1 has split his two previous meetings with Djokovic on grass, but leads the Serb 9-4 overall at the Grand Slams.
Surviving Del Potro
Many will argue that Nadal might feel fatigued against Djokovic after his marathon battle with Del Potro. The Spaniard has spent almost three more hours on court than Djokovic, who may be the fresher of the two. However, surviving a tight match can be liberating and Nadal and Djokovic are arguably two of the fittest players of this generation. With a day off between rounds, both are expected to be ready.
Too soon for Djokovic
Djokovic has gradually been building up his form at Queen's and at the All England Club. But this clash with Nadal may have come too early for him. The 31-year-old is short on match play at this level, and has faced top 10 opponents only four times this year, winning just once. Nadal has an 8-2 record against top 10 players in 2018 and has already picked up four titles. It will be interesting to see how ready Djokovic is for a showdown of this calibre, but the scales are slightly tipped towards his opponent.