The perfect conditions for an upset materialise when an unseeded player on their best surface catches a top player on their worst.
And for more than three hours on the opening day of Wimbledon, Italy’s Simone Bolelli threatened to claim a monumental upset that would have rocked the men’s singles draw at SW19. Yet No.5 seed Kei Nishikori escaped, surviving an intense 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 battle – taking his five-set win-loss record to a sparkling 12-3 – to progress to the second round.
The Japanese superstar has flourished at most tournaments on most surfaces around the world in the past couple of years. His crowning achievement was a US Open final appearance in 2014, and he has also reached quarter-finals at Melbourne Park and Roland Garros.
Success on grass, however, and at Wimbledon, has remained elusive. Nishikori is a lean 30-19 on the surface throughout his career, a rather curious stat given his game – with its compact strokes, flat backhand, exceptional footwork and low centre of gravity – seems perfectly suited to it. Bolelli, conversely, has performed better at Wimbledon than at any other slam. Three times he has made the third round, including last year when he pushed Nishikori to the brink in another five-setter.
But as he discussed following his epic victory, Nishikori may be finally starting to crack the code.
“My serve is getting better now. I feel like I get more free points. Try to come in a little more to the nets. That's also working,” he said.
Indeed, it was Nishikori’s serve that came to the fore on No.1 Court, particularly in the fifth set when he streaked ahead 5-2 on the back of two powerful first serves and then brought up a bundle of match points in the ninth game with more forceful deliveries. Although Bolelli staved off two of them, another cracking serve drew an error and sealed victory.
Earlier, the match has been one punctured by momentum swings. The No.5 seed was the more consistent in the opening set, only to then fade in the second. He recovered in the third as Bolelli became error prone, yet the Italian found his range in the fourth, cracking a glorious backhand winner cross court on his way to breaking for a 3-1 lead and eventually sending the match into a deciding set.
Nishikori required a visit from the trainer in the fifth to strap his left calf, the troublesome muscle that prompted his withdrawal from the semi-finals of the recent grass-court event in Halle. Yet he claimed not to be bothered by the niggle, and believed the week on the German lawns had instead been a confidence-booster ahead of his Wimbledon campaign.
“I got couple good matches before coming here in Halle,” he said.
“I'm sure I need more matches to get more experience. And also to win the matches, it's important for my confidence. I'm sure that I'm playing good on grass now.”
Although on paper Wimbledon is his weakest Grand Slam, his results at the All England Club have been steadily improving. First-round losses in 2008, 2010 and 2011 were followed by third-round finishes in 2012 and 2013. Last year was his first appearance in the second week.
Could such steady upward progression be a forecast for an even deeper run in 2015?
Nishikori doesn’t dismiss the notion.
“I'm always excited to play on this tournaments, on the grass court. Maybe the result is not coming yet, but I start feeling more confidence playing on here,” he said.
“So I hope it's better result will come.”