Wimbledon.com's Nick McCarvel and Craig O'Shannessy argue over who will win the ladies' singles final. Have your say using #WimbleWars on Twitter!
NICK McCARVEL: Venus Williams will win Wimbledon title No.6
For the past couple of years, tennis fans (including myself) have been cheering for Venus Williams with our hearts. But on Saturday, in the ladies’ singles final against Garbiñe Muguruza, we can feel confident in picking Venus to win the Wimbledon title with our heads, too.
That’s purely because of the high level she’s been playing at this year’s Championships. It’s vintage Venus.
Before we dive into the why, let’s consider some amazing statistics. On Thursday she played the 101st singles match of her career at the All England Club, recording her 87th victory by beating home hope Johanna Konta in a straight sets.
At 37, she would be the oldest Grand Slam winner in the Open era, and she’s reached a second major final this year, having finished runner-up to sister Serena at January’s Australian Open. But how does she go one step further than in Melbourne and win a major title for the first time since Wimbledon 2008?
She has dropped just one set in six matches – the opener in her second round encounter with Wang Qiang. Foes including Konta, French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko, and US Open quarter-finalist Ana Konjuh have simply looked overwhelmed by the power of Williams’ fierce and fiery strokes in her 20th Wimbledon appearance. She’s looked as strong as ever this Fortnight, moving with grace and confidence that is best displayed on her favourite surface: grass.
She’s also hit 28 aces, won 80 per cent of her first serve points, broken her opponents a total of 18 times (or three breaks per match) and smacked a total of 131 winners. Vintage Venus, indeed.
That’s why I’m so convinced that she’ll hoist the Venus Rosewater Dish (how poetic is that trophy name for her?) on Saturday. Take nothing away from Muguruza or her own hot current form, but Venus has done her best to rewind time and take us back to the play that she exhibited in her early 20s, when she won here in 2000 and again in 2001, or that of 2005, 2007 and 2008, when a resurgent Venus won three times in four attempts.
While it’s easy to say that experience favours Williams, it’s actually her pure, ball-bashing, I’m-the-best-grass-court-tennis-player form at the moment that convinces me she’ll win Wimbledon. She’s been the best on this surface this Wimbledon hands down. Imagine it: Venus Williams, 2017 Wimbledon champion. Wow.
CRAIG O’SHANNESSY: The numbers favour Muguruza
Garbiñe Muguruza is the favourite, for me, in the Wimbledon ladies’ final. She has a distinct advantage in three critical areas that will see her win her first title at the All England club on Saturday afternoon.
Backhand
Garbiñe may never have hit her backhand as well as she is now. She has struck 51 backhand winners leading up to the final, which is almost double her opponent's. It’s important to note that most baseline points are constructed initially backhand to backhand through the ad court. Muguruza will be sitting on her favourite shot, hovering around the baseline to attack anything hit just a little short.
When she made the final here in 2015 against Serena, she had committed 151 backhand errors leading into the final. This year that number is only 103. Her backhand will prove to be the most dominant shot in baseline exchanges.
Approach & volley
Muguruza’s deep, penetrating backhand is producing a lot of short balls to attack. She has gone to the net 129 times so far – a much higher figure than Venus’s 84. The Spaniard is winning a very high percentage (71) of her net points (92 of 129), which is significantly more than her 51 per cent figure from the baseline (215 of 423). Muguruza will own the back of the court with her backhand, and the front of the court with her decisive volleys.
Holding Serve
Muguruza is No.1 for the tournament in holding serve, at 93 per cent (54 of 58). Venus is not far away at 91 per cent (59 of 65) but, once again, the small advantage falls the way of the younger player. Muguruza is also ranked No.1 for the tournament in the critical area of break points saved, at 82 per cent (18 of 22). Venus is tied for sixth at 75 per cent (18 of 24). Muguruza was not broken in her quarter-final victory against Svetlana Kuznetsova, or her semi-final demolition of Magdalena Rybarikova.
A point here and a point there is all that separates these two ladies. Garbiñe is coming into the final with superior numbers: while serving; from the back of the court; and also at the net. She is the complete package this year, and is ticking all the boxes to become the Ladies’ Singles Champion for 2017.