With the earlier than expected defeats of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, this year’s men’s event at the US Open has had a distinctly fresh feel about it, not least since there will be two first-time Grand Slam semi-finalists in Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev.
But though things may be changing, slowly, the big three are still very much there, this time represented by Rafael Nadal and it is the 33-year-old Spaniard who is now the huge favourite to win the title for a fourth time.
Nadal, the champion in 2010, 2013 and 2017, took his place in the last four in the early hours of Thursday morning with a tougher than it sounds 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 victory over a doughty competitor in Diego Schwartzman of Argentina.
“He’s one of the best players of the world,” Nadal said of Schwartzman. “When he's playing well, he's able to win against everybody. Tonight was for me. Tough match. I'm very happy for the victory.”
Twelve months ago, Nadal bowed out at the semi-final stage in 2018 when his ailing knee finally gave way, but looks strong and sharp this time around and showed his experience when Schwartzman fought back hard in the opening two sets, gaining parity from 4-0 down in the first and 5-1 down in the second.
But Nadal stayed mentally strong when it mattered most, taking both sets and then pulling away in the third to set up a clash with the 23-year-old Italian Berrettini, who edged out Gael Monfils 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(5) in a classic encounter.
There has been a lot of talk in New York over the past two weeks about the big three’s dominance in Grand slams, chatter that perhaps, just perhaps, they are showing signs of fragility, not least since Djokovic and Federer both went out before the quarter-finals.
But the big three have won the past 11 Grand Slam titles, going back to Stan Wawrinka’s victory in New York in 2016. Before that, they had won all but four of the previous 27 Gran Slams, with Andy Murray pinching three and Marin Cilic one.
In all, they have won 54 Grand Slam titles and Nadal now has a golden chance to win a fourth US Open crown and take his overall tally to 19, just one short of the record held by Federer with 20.
That should be incentive enough but as always for Nadal, his health is the key and though the Schwartzman match saw him take on some salt to combat cramp, he said he will be ready for Berrettini, who is into the last four of a Grand Slam for the first time.
“The body is in good shape, I think,” he said. “No, not big problems. Just of course now a little bit tired, long day, 1:30. Need to go to sleep. But I really believe that I going to be in good shape.”
That doesn’t bode well for Berrettini, an Italian who has risen from outside the top 50 at the start of the year to a predicted ranking of world No.13 off the back of his performances at Flushing Meadows.
At 6ft 5in, he has a huge serve and punishing forehand and Nadal knows he will need to be close to his best if he is to reach another final.
“Berrettini is having a great year,” he said. “He's in semi-finals winning a lot of good matches, so what you can expect in a semi-finals of a Grand Slam match. You can't expect an easy opponent. You can't expect an easy match.
“I need to be ready to play my best tennis. Today I make a step forward, in my opinion. That match gives me confidence. Two matches in a row against two tough opponents. That's a moment to increase a little bit more the level, and I really believe that I can do it, and I hope.”
For now, Nadal will enjoy his win and then turn his mind toward Berrettini. “I achieved the four semi-finals of the four Grand Slams this year, and that's a lot. Very, very happy for that.”
Berrettini will need to produce something extra-special if he is to challenge Nadal, a man he described as “the greatest fighter ever in this sport."
“His attitude is…close to perfection,” the Italian said. “He's always, like, 5-0, 40-Love down, he's always there. It's something that's not that easy to do. So bravo.”
If Berrettini pulls it off, it will be one of the biggest upsets in recent Grand Slam history.