The numbers that separate them are vast, as they are whenever Novak Djokovic takes to the court against anyone outside his Big Three peers these days.

Matteo Berrettini fronts up for his maiden Grand Slam final on the same day his beloved Italy fight for the Euro football trophy. His opponent, the 19-time Grand Slam champion, is one match from the third leg of a 'Golden Grand Slam'.

Since the last eight were confirmed, these two were the most likely to be the last standing on the final Sunday of The Championships. True to form, they are: the world No.1 versus a man riding an 11-match unbeaten streak on the grass.

Djokovic has claimed both prior meetings, but their showdown in last month’s Roland-Garros quarter-finals pointed to Berrettini’s rising potential at this exalted level.

Matteo Berrettini: Semi-Finals Best Points

The Italian salvaged only three games when the pair first crossed paths in 2019 at the ATP Cup. Two and a half years later, he had improved immensely and pushed the eventual champion in a close four sets in Paris before he collected his maiden ATP 500 trophy on grass at Queen’s Club last month.

The green stuff will only enhance the Roman’s greatest strengths – his serve and his forehand – and he will need both to be firing if he is to stand a chance against arguably the greatest returner the sport has seen.

The 6ft 5in Roman has thumped an event-leading 101 aces, 38 more than his third-placed opponent, and could make inroads on the Djokovic second serve, which has only gone unreturned just 17 per cent of the time.


101
Aces for Berrettini – 38 more than Djokovic

“With big weapons in serve and forehand, he can play well – which he has proven – on any surface,” Djokovic said. “Obviously grass favours him even more, favours his game. If he serves big, as he did throughout the entire tournament, it's tough to break his serve, it's tough to go into the rhythm, to find a good positioning to return, make him play.

“But I believe in my return. I think return has served me very well throughout my career. Hopefully I'll be able to get a lot of those serves back and wait for my chances. I will have to also serve myself efficiently.”


player image
33
Singles Rank
Matteo Berrettini
Country:
Italy
Age:
29
Birth Date:
12 April 1996
Birth Place:
Rome, Italy
Height:
6 ft. 5 in. (1.96 metre)
Weight:
209 lbs. (95 kilos)
Plays:
Right Handed
33
Singles Rank
player image
6
Singles Rank
1261
Doubles Rank
Novak Djokovic
Country:
Serbia
Age:
37
Birth Date:
22 May 1987
Birth Place:
Belgrade, Serbia
Height:
6 ft. 2 in. (1.88 metre)
Weight:
170 lbs. (77.3 kilos)
Plays:
Right Handed
6
Singles Rank
1261
Doubles Rank

The pair can’t be split when it comes to closing out games on serve. Both have fended off 81 per cent of break points and held 95 per cent of the time, having been broken only five times each this Fortnight.

This will be a first encounter with a top 10 seed of The Championships for both men and with two combatants so dominant on serve throughout, tie-breaks could prove pivotal. Berrettini holds the edge in 2021, winning 13 of 18 played, while Djokovic has won nine of 17.

Despite continued improvements, Berrettini’s backhand remains something of a weakness. Of his 254 winners, 84 have come from his forehand and only 19 off his backhand. Expect Djokovic to keep him guessing as to whether he will risk firing to his opponent’s forehand before exposing the weaker wing, or reverting to target the backhand outright.

Should Berrettini find himself in a five-set final, the outlook becomes considerably more difficult. Sascha Bajin, Karolina Pliskova's coach, likened it to walking on water. “I think especially against these guys, if you don't win the first two sets, it's all tough,” he said.

As a free-swinging Denis Shapovalov discovered in the semi-finals, a blistering start is no guarantee of a set, let alone victory. Few players have such unbridled faith in their ability to find rhythm as Djokovic, and few are able to stem the flow.

“To have that belief and that knowledge and that self-confidence is something that comes through wins and five-setters and being there and knowing how to manage your emotions, knowing how to manage your physicality,” Bajin said. “It's so brutal on the body. When to pull the trigger, when not to."

Bajin’s advice for the Italian was simple: focus on your own strengths when up against the might of Djokovic. “He's a very special human being, very special abilities. Because there's no big weakness you want to start with your own strengths. You always want to look at, ‘What can I do that's best for me?’ If that doesn't work, my next thought would be, ‘What prevents me from playing my best?’”

 

Obviously grass favours him. If he serves big, it's tough to break. But I believe in my return
Novak Djokovic

Perhaps nerves could seep into the Djokovic psyche as he closes in on the chance to draw level with his two greatest rivals on a record-equalling 20 Grand Slam titles, but as his vanquished semi-final opponent reflected, there was no chance the 34-year-old would fade quietly.

“He does a really good job of putting pressure when it's needed, and you feel it exactly in those moments,” Shapovalov said. “He steps up. He does that really well.”


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