Picking the woman most likely to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish come Saturday has proven something of a fool’s game so far this Fortnight. Only one name among the list of early favourites has stood firm.
Elena Rybakina might have had some questioning her chances when world No.72 Laura Siegemund pushed her to three sets as early as the second round; but the 2022 champion followed that with a fearsome statement by flattening former world No.1 Caroline Wozniacki for the loss of just one game.
If the Rybakina steamroller wasn’t quite in evidence for her last 16 joust with Anna Kalinskaya, once the No.4 seed got her game in gear after an early break against her, there was little question who would be going into the quarter-finals to face Elina Svitolina.
On her Centre Court debut, and supported by her other half Jannik Sinner in her player box, Kalinskaya was troubled from the fourth game by a problem with her racket hand. Meanwhile, Rybakina’s formidable serve wobbled occasionally but nothing endangered the likelihood of her progress.
By the time Kalinskaya was forced to call it quits, Rybakina had reeled off eight straight games to go from 1-3 to 6-3, 3-0. The highest-ranked player left in the draw is looking a fearsome prospect ahead.
“This was definitely not the way I wanted to finish the match,” said the Kazakh. “Anna is a great player. I know she was suffering with a couple of injuries. If it is the wrist, it’s so difficult continuing to play. I just wish her a speedy recovery.
“Every opponent is difficult. I don’t feel pressure – I’m just trying to bring my best for every match, enjoying every time I step on the court. Hopefully I can go to the end.”
Kalinskaya – who had spectators courtside noting her facial resemblance to 2014 Wimbledon finalist Eugenie Bouchard – has redefined her career this year. At the start of 2024 she had never reached the third round in any Grand Slam, but set about changing that in Melbourne.
Ranked 75th when reaching the last eight there, she has backed that up with runner-up finishes in Dubai and on the grass of Berlin. By the time the 25-year-old arrived at the All England Club, she was worthy of the No.17 seeding.
Yet to drop a set through the first three rounds here, she got this joust underway in a fashion any player would have dreamed of. On Rybakina’s serve, in the very first rally, Kalinskaya matched her shot for shot. Playing with an unshowy air of assurance, she coolly snapped off a backhand pass for break point, whereupon Rybakina sent the ball wide.
This saw Rybakina at her most demonstrative – although we are of course talking tiny degrees here. She has a habit when a point is lost of staying rooted to the spot, dropping her shoulders and gazing reproachfully after the ball. Thus it was in the first game of this match, and very little afterwards.
Almost at once she upped the aggression to level at 3-3, at which point Kalinskaya flexed her racket hand and requested the trainer. At the next changeover, she received a medical timeout for attention to her right forearm and on the resumption was broken to love, in the midst of conceding 15 straight points.
As Rybakina served out the set Kalinskaya rallied, and there were glimpses of the player from the opening game of the match. But while Rybakina required five set points to get the job done, it never felt in doubt. Three games later Kalinskaya called a halt.
So Rybakina now has a Wimbledon win percentage of – gasp – 90%, just the third woman in the Open Era to reach that mark after Ann Jones and Steffi Graf. That’s a lovely-looking neighbourhood, and it may get lovelier still over the coming days.
