After 128 men lined up on Day 1 of main draw action, just four remain in the hunt to lift the men’s singles trophy on Sunday afternoon.
Novak Djokovic is still on track for his eighth Wimbledon title and faces Grand Slam semi-final debutant Lorenzo Musetti on Friday, after defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev open Centre Court play at 1.30pm.
The Alcaraz-Medvedev match is a repeat of last year’s semi-final won by the Spaniard 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 and the No.5 seed will be desperate to avoid falling into the same traps 12 months on.
Alcaraz v Medvedev
A scan over numbers from their meeting here at Wimbledon in 2023, reminds us how effective Alcaraz’s aggression was that day.
During that victory, the 21-year-old was ‘in attack’ during rallies 33 per cent of the time, 8 per cent higher than Medvedev’s equivalent number.
And crucially when the man from Murcia went on the attack, more often than not he was successful in doing so, converting 71 per cent of those points he controlled with aggressive tennis.
That tactic was backed up nicely with an impressive steal score too - how often a player wins the point from a defensive position. Alcaraz used his incredible speed, footwork and athleticism to win 37 per cent of those points.
Another key area that worked so well for Alcaraz last year was his serving patterns to the deuce court, swinging the ball out wide to expose Medvedev’s deep and wide return position. Serving to that spot on a regular basis opened up the court to give Alcaraz attacking opportunities as the point developed.
The Spaniard won 85 per cent of points when he used the wide serve to the deuce court. Will Medvedev change his return position on Friday - standing closer to the baseline - to try to counteract this?
Djokovic v Musetti
We normally associate Djokovic with some of the best defence in the game, but interestingly Musetti’s outstanding movement on grass, his use of his sliced backhand and his great hand skills have put him at the top of the ‘steal’ leaderboard for all four semi-finalists.
Almost half of all Musetti’s backhands struck at the Championships have been hit with slice - 48 per cent to be exact, that’s 19 per cent higher than the average in the men’s field.
The Italian has won 37 per cent of all points played when he’s been in defence - the average in the men’s draw is 30 per cent - but can he reproduce that level of efficiency against the greatest player of all time?
Talking to www.wimbledon.com on Thursday, Musetti’s coach Simone Tartarini recognises that the 22-year-old has to maintain variety in his play.
“He’ll need to return well, mix in the slice, hit his forehand near the line,” Tartarini said. “He needs to change it up with every ball. Give Djokovic rhythm and it’s finished, Novak will smoke us.”
Tartarini knows better than most just how ruthless Djokovic is in big matches and the Serb has been the most clinical of all four players so far in SW19.
His consistency when attacking with his forehand is off the scale - landing 94 per cent of shots off that wing when looking to be aggressive, and averaging an impressive 79mph forehand speed when doing so.
That combination has meant Djokovic has the highest conversion score of the remaining players in the draw, winning 78.3 per cent of points played when he has been in attack.
